Car Depreciation Calculator
The Car Depreciation Calculator shows how a vehicle’s value typically declines over time and miles, turning sticker prices into realistic resale or trade-in expectations. It’s useful when you’re comparing models or trims, deciding between new and used, planning a lease return, or timing a sale so you’re not caught upside-down.
This tool lets us map an expected value curve, test “what-ifs” around driving habits and ownership length, and see how those choices affect total cost of ownership and likely equity. The goal is clarity: choose financing and hold periods with eyes open, negotiate with data in hand, and budget for replacement on your own timeline rather than the car’s.
Value curve by age and miles — choose a model to estimate current value, see a year-by-year schedule, and total loss since new.
We estimate vehicle value from the original price using a chosen depreciation curve. Adjust miles/year to reflect usage. Outputs include a year-by-year schedule and total loss since new.
Value by year
| Year | Estimated value | Depreciation this year |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | $35,000.00 | — |
| 1 | $28,000.00 | $7,000.00 |
| 2 | $23,800.00 | $4,200.00 |
| 3 | $20,944.00 | $2,856.00 |
| 4 | $18,849.60 | $2,094.40 |
| 5 | $17,341.63 | $1,507.97 |
| 6 | $16,127.72 | $1,213.91 |
| 7 | $15,160.05 | $967.66 |
| 8 | $14,250.45 | $909.60 |
| 9 | $13,395.42 | $855.03 |
| 10 | $12,591.70 | $803.73 |
| 11 | $11,836.20 | $755.50 |
| 12 | $11,126.03 | $710.17 |
| 13 | $10,458.46 | $667.56 |
| 14 | $9,830.96 | $627.51 |
| 15 | $9,241.10 | $589.86 |
This schedule starts from new (year 0). We apply your selected curve and cap the value at a residual floor to avoid negative results.
Results interpretation
How it works
We offer three depreciation curves and scale them for usage. These aren’t appraisal values—just transparent math for planning.
Formulas, assumptions, limitations
Miles adjustment. We scale annual rates by (miles ÷ 12,000) within ±25% bounds.
Typical (front-loaded). 20%, 15%, 12%, 10%, 8%, 7% by year with a 6% tail; partial years take a pro-rata slice of the next year’s rate.
Exponential. A single annual rate compounded (≈16% baseline), adjusted for miles, produces a smooth curve.
Linear. Equal percent of original price each year (≈12% baseline) until the residual floor.
Residual floor. 10% of original price; prevents values from dropping unrealistically low.
Scope. We ignore trim, options, market shocks, accidents, and condition. Treat results as directional estimates.
Use cases & examples
Set age to 3, miles/year to your driving, and compare curves. The typical curve often aligns with front-loaded depreciation seen on new cars.
If you plan to sell at year 5, read that row in the table to estimate proceeds and the implied cost of ownership.
Raise miles/year to see faster declines. The miles adjustment nudges annual rates but avoids extreme swings with a ±25% cap.
Car depreciation FAQs
Which curve is most realistic?
Front-loaded curves often match real markets on new cars. For used, a smoother exponential can be reasonable. We include linear for simplicity checks.
Why a residual floor?
Even older vehicles retain salvage or running value. We cap at 10% of original price to avoid nonsensical zeros.
Does condition or accidents matter?
Yes. Our model is generic and doesn’t adjust for condition, features, geography, or history.
How do miles affect results?
We scale annual rates based on your miles/year versus a 12k baseline, bounded so small changes don’t overwhelm the curve.
Can I use this for a trade-in quote?
No. Use it as a planning estimate and compare with multiple real offers when you’re ready.
What about EVs or luxury cars?
Some segments deviate from typical patterns. Use the exponential curve and sanity-check against live listings.
Understanding car depreciation: why curves matter
Depreciation is the hidden cost of car ownership. We rarely see the line item, but it often eclipses fuel and maintenance combined. Our goal is to set expectations with a transparent model, then pressure-test assumptions before we buy or sell. The shape of the curve—front-loaded, smooth, or linear—drives most of the story.
Front-loaded vs smooth depreciation
New cars typically lose the most value early. Incentives, model-year changeovers, and initial demand shifts create a steep first-year drop. After that, the curve moderates. A smooth exponential curve can better reflect a used vehicle that’s already absorbed the early hit. Linear curves are helpful sanity checks when we need a fast mental model.
Miles, condition, and market forces
Mileage compresses value: more miles per year increases depreciation pressure. Condition and options add noise around the curve—tires, brakes, features, color, even regional preferences. Market shocks (chip shortages, fuel price swings, new-model releases) can bend the curve for months at a time. That’s why we treat outputs as an estimate, not a quote.
Planning with a value curve
- Set a sell window. Pick a year where the curve flattens enough that keeping the car longer provides diminishing savings.
- Budget the real TCO. Depreciation + financing + fuel + insurance + maintenance is the full picture.
- Compare trims. Higher MSRP trims can depreciate faster in dollars, even if the percent is similar.
Resale strategies
- Keep maintenance records to protect value at sale time.
- Match tires and address visible wear before listing.
- Time the market—convertibles in spring, 4×4 before winter, new-model launches can push down prior-year values.
Limitations and next steps
No generic model captures every make and model. When you’re closer to a decision, cross-check with real comps: multiple trade-in bids, private-party listings, and valuation guides. The curve here gives us a head start so those conversations are faster and sharper.
Bottom line
Depreciation is inevitable—but predictable enough to plan around. With a clear curve, we can choose the right time to buy or sell, budget realistically, and avoid surprises.